In twenty months, the United States will hold their next Presidential election. While no one knows what the result will be, there’s a very real chance that a conservative Republican – likely a Tea Party guy – will inhabit the White House from January 2017.
There are a lot of reasons to be concerned about that – especially if you care about marriage equality, climate change, education, foreign relations, health care, the growing gap between rich and poor, race relations, the right to terminate a pregnancy, equality for women, capital punishment, investment for scientific research and every other area where the Tea Party is stuck in the Dark Ages. However, the threat of repealing The Affordable Care Act or passing a law re-assigning all IRS workers to guard the Mexican border or the probability of more military excursions into the Middle East aren’t the things that scare me the most. There’s something far scarier.
The Supreme Court is the most powerful group of people in the country – one of the most powerful in the world. They provide interpretations of laws that govern behaviour for decades, they can virtually strike down legislation, they have the power over life and death in multiple areas. They’ve ruled on abortion, segregation, the teaching of Evolution, the death penalty and so many more things. They set the tone of the nation. If they’d ruled differently, in the past, America would still be a place with separate schools for blacks and whites, abortion would still be illegal, Darwin would be outlawed in schools and Obama would be using Coloured toilets and riding in the back of the bus.
A President’s greatest possible legacy is to stack the Supreme Court with a strong majority of Justices from his side of the political fence. A job on the Supreme Court bench is virtually a job for life – you have to be pretty old and feeble to step down, especially if your departure could shift the political direction of the Court. Once you’re appointed and confirmed, you’re there for a bloody long time.
Currently, five justices were appointed by Republican Presidents and four by Democrats. The Chief Justice, Bush appointee John Roberts, is the most moderate member and is often the swing voter in Court decisions. Two of the Left leaning Justices, Clinton appointees Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer, are 82 and 77 respectively. They will undoubtedly die or retire during the term of the next President. Two of the most right leaning Justices – Scalia and Thomas – are also senior citizens.
If the next US President is from the loony Right, he will undoubtedly appoint at least four Supreme Court Justices – two from each side of the political divide. If the Congress continues to slide toward the Right, POTUS will have no difficulty replacing Scalia and Kennedy with equally conservative judges. He’ll also be able to replace Ginsburg and Breyer with racist, misogynist types.
If this scenario occurs, the Supreme Court of the United States will take a giant tilt to the Right. The next oldest, Clarence Thomas, an extremely conservative Justice who, ironically, owes his career to brave rulings of more liberal Courts, is only 67 – a comparative teenager in SCOTUS terms. A stubborn bastard like him won’t leave until he’s carried out in a box. The Tea Party die will be cast for a generation, at least.
If my worst nightmares come true, may the Magic Invisible Guy help Gays, women, scientists, the poor, students who want to know about more than the books of the Pentateuch and Noah’s ark, scientific research and – worst of all – the planet. They’ll all need all the help they can get.
david chaulk 